The Renaissance Dam Lake and the Sudanese Precautionary Dilemma
Face of Truth
Ibrahim Shglawi
Amid the escalating technical and political discussions around the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), developments concerning the dam’s lake emerge as a critically strategic indicator. This necessitates a careful reading and precise technical precaution from Sudan, especially in light of the circulating statements and warnings, where scientific data intersects with political messaging.
The latest remarks in this context came from Dr. Abbas Sharaky, Professor of Geology and Water Resources at Cairo University, according to the “Nabd Al-Sudan” website. He warned of the delay in opening the Renaissance Dam gates, pointing to the approaching rainy season and the inability of turbines to operate due to low water inflow in April, which is estimated at only about 12 million cubic meters per day—a quantity insufficient to operate a single turbine for long hours.
On the other hand, other technical data call for careful review. Monitoring data indicates that the water level of the Renaissance Dam lake has dropped by more than five meters recently due to water being released through the turbines, while the Blue Nile inflow has remained at high levels exceeding 45 million cubic meters per day and not dropping below 35 million to date. These figures weaken the assumption of a complete turbine shutdown and raise questions about the accuracy of some claims circulating on social media.
These contradictions place us before the dilemma of verification: are the statements being made merely neutral technical assessments, or are they media messages with a political character, passed through the channels of “experts” to serve negotiating and political agendas in a highly complex regional context—one that cannot afford gambling with Sudan’s interests or handling the issue based on unverified data?
What is certain in this context—and according to Sharaky himself—is that Ethiopia currently retains about 60 billion cubic meters of water in the dam lake, after storage peaked at a level of 638 meters in September 2024. With the rainy season approaching, Addis Ababa is now compelled to release about 20 billion cubic meters to accommodate the Blue Nile flood.
However, former Sudanese Minister of Irrigation, Dr. Othman Al-Tom Hamad, expressed reservations about this possibility. He expects Ethiopia to release only 5 billion cubic meters through the turbines over the next two months, at the current daily rate. This, he says, means there is no direct danger to Sudan, affirming that this amount is sufficient to meet water needs and is considered a comfortable water situation for both Sudan and Egypt over the next four months. He added that there is an operational program related to the Roseires Dam that was prepared to ensure there is no danger.
Nevertheless, based on continued monitoring, it is important to note that any sudden and uncoordinated release could lead to a sharp rise in the Blue Nile’s water level—something Sudan has constantly warned about. This is especially true given the disparity between the maximum discharge capacity of the Renaissance Dam (31,000 m³/s) and the Roseires Dam after heightening (23,000 m³/s), which warns of a catastrophic overflow at the Roseires Dam unless strict and immediate engineering precautions are taken.
This reality makes the discussion about creating “emergency spillways” at the Roseires Lake a strategic necessity, not an engineering luxury. According to the data, the 8,000 m³/s difference between the discharge capacities of the two dams must be managed within Sudan’s national precautionary planning—away from rhetorical reassurances and inaccurate assessments.
And while Dr. Sharaky’s statements included a degree of detailed analysis, they simultaneously call for professional caution: not everything that is said can be taken at face value. Some messages, even if they appear scientific, may carry negotiating aims or calculations that go beyond expertise to politically influence Sudanese decision-making. Herein lies the critical importance of having a clear Sudanese scientific voice, one that closely follows the dam’s developments moment by moment, informs public opinion, and reassures decision-makers and citizens with accurate, updated data.
Within this framework, the importance of coordinating roles among Sudan, Egypt, and Ethiopia becomes evident—to ensure the promotion of shared strategic interests, particularly in light of the Declaration of Principles on the Renaissance Dam signed in Khartoum in 2015, which established principles of cooperation, non-harm, information exchange, and peaceful dispute resolution. Despite challenges in its implementation, the declaration has proven that consensus is possible whenever there is political will and a shared vision.
This coordination becomes even more crucial today, in light of the successive meetings between the three parties, particularly the recent ones that brought Sudan together with both Ethiopia and Egypt, and which affirmed the necessity of reaching a binding legal agreement on the filling and operation of the dam. Maintaining regional stability and enhancing the prospects of sustainable development in the Nile Basin hinge on the seriousness of this coordination and the ability of the three countries to transcend temporary disputes and work in a spirit of partnership that considers the magnitude of the challenges and the vital interests related to water, security, and sovereignty.
In conclusion, what we see from the #Face_of_Truth indicates that Sudan—amid the current war and the challenges of water sovereignty—is required to do more than just listen to others. It must produce knowledge, monitor facts with a purely national methodology, and base its calculations on scientific and sovereign standards—especially when the matter is as sensitive as the Renaissance Dam issue. The dam is not just a water project; it is a geopolitical one, where the interests of nations intersect and the intentions of allies and adversaries alike diverge. Hence, we renew the call for the importance of role integration to maximize benefits and minimize risks.
Wishing you well and good health.
Sunday, April 13, 2025
Shglawi55@gmail.com