The forgotten war in Sudan… The upcoming scenarios!

Reading: Moataz Mahgoub

(The war in Sudan will stop after the end of this brutal rebellion) … This is what President of the Sudan’s Transitional Sovereignty Council (TSC), General Abdel-Fattah Al-Burhan, stated with confidence and reassurance during the recent meeting of disclosure which he held with journalists in the administrative capital, Port Sudan.

It seems that the situations in Sudan will take new scenarios according to the new developments that began to appear in the arena, not the first of which is dealing on an equal footing with the American side and the mediation that is in charge of negotiation between the government and the rebel Rapid Support Forces (RSF) Militia. It became clear that the government is now possessing new cards in the international game. The government refused to go to Geneva and adhered to the Jeddah Agreement, and subdued the American side, which seems to be looking for a final victory for itself before the end of the term of the American government led by the Democratic Party, which the givens and developments of events indicate will not return to the arena soon with the strong hypothesis of the victory of former US President Donald Trump in the US presidential race. The US Secretary of State and his special envoy to Sudan are now playing in extra time, which the Sudanese government became aware of and turned it from receiving instructions to imposing conditions.

Many observers believe that the major transformations that the military scene will witness after the availability of new advanced weapons that the government had previously announced through its military leadership, and were seen on the battlefield. All these transformations made the militia’s supporters, both apparent and hidden, rush to a negotiated solution, particularly with the beginning of halting military support for the militia due to the autumn conditions and its unplanned expansion in areas whose terrain is not good at war due to the rain and mud, unlike the army and its supporting forces, which are good at war in all circumstances for their training and experience in this matter.

The political experts, Dr. Ahmed Al-Mustafa Ibrahim, who worked in a number of strategic studies centers in the United States of America, affirmed to (Sudanese Echoes) that the future scenarios for the situation in Sudan are governed by the course of the war and the balance of military power, which began to return to the Sudanese army after it engaged into declared alliances with Russia, Iran, Qatar and Turkey, upon which large military supplies start coming to Port Sudan port and airport. “If the balance of power changes on the ground, this will impose a new status at the political and military levels and strengthen the army’s position in any future negotiations.”, he added

Dr. Al-Mustafa goes on to say that the government possesses new cards by playing on the fears of regional and international powers, which are very worried that the security of the Red Sea will be affected by the imminent establishment of a Russian logistics supply base on the shores of the Red Sea under a previous agreement since the era of President Al-Bashir between the government of Sudan and Russia, as the control of the waterway means the control of the region, and this increases the fears of America, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the Emirates.

Perhaps the strength of Al-Burhan’s argument and his great confidence in the cards he possess made him categorically refuse to engage into any future negotiations with the rebel RSF militia, except in the name of the government, also announcing his intention to form a war government.

Dr. Al-Mustafa says, during his speech to (Sudanese Echoes), that the possibilities of the end of the war in Sudan will not come out of specific scenarios, the most likely of which is the army achieving an overwhelming military victory eliminating the militia, which seems very likely with the beginning of the parties supporting the militia to abandon it and with the mental image of all the Sudanese people rejecting the militia and any presence of which in the political scene in all of the Sudan.

The second scenario, is that the rebel RSF militia controls all of the Sudan, which is unlikely and unrealistic in light of the givens in the field and in light of the increasing international rejection of the documented violations that the militia continues to commit.

Dr. Al-Mustafa says that there is a third scenario, which is that Sudan will be divided into two states similar to the Libyan model, which is a possible scenario in light of the social incubators in Darfur standing with the militia due to money and racist tones and what is so-called eliminating the state of 56. But if it happens, it will lead to a civil war between the components of society in Darfur later.

The question remains: where is the war in Sudan heading? It will be subject to Al-Burhan’s seriousness and the speed of his move eastward to possess greater pressure cards on the West, and the time factor will be decisive .