The Army’s Victories Disrupt Political Calculations for Parties

The Face of Truth

Ibrahim Shaglawi

In this article, we attempt to track the evolving positions of political parties towards current events in Sudan, focusing on two main factors: first, the recurrent violations by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) militia in the Sudanese state of Al-Jazirah; and second, the victories achieved by the Sudanese army across various battlefronts.

The Civil Forces Coordinating Committee (CDCF) issued an exceptional statement unequivocally condemning the RSF militia, marking the first condemnation of its kind in such strong terms since the conflict erupted in Sudan in mid-April of last year. This conflict saw increased violations against civilians in several Sudanese states, especially in the villages of Al-Jazirah State.

The statement highlighted the developments in eastern Al-Jazirah, holding the RSF militia responsible for widespread abuses in the cities of Rufaa, Tamboul, Hilaliya, and many other villages in eastern Al-Jazirah. These areas reportedly suffered from massive terror campaigns, including the stripping away of the right to life, with unarmed civilians being killed by gunfire, in addition to extensive looting. The statement also condemned the looting of main markets in numerous areas in eastern and northern Al-Jazirah, which has worsened humanitarian conditions and led to mass displacement from the region.

CDCF called on the RSF militia to adhere to the Jeddah Agreement on Security and Humanitarian Arrangements signed on May 11, 2023, and to respect international laws protecting civilians. Notably, this statement from CDCF emphasized the need for the militia’s commitment to the Jeddah Agreement, while omitting mention of the partnership document it signed with RSF leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo in Addis Ababa last January. CDCF had rushed towards this document, hoping it would ensure a stable political partnership after the war, which has been blamed on sparking the conflict, mistakenly believing that RSF control over the country was merely a matter of time.

Thus, the document reflected an alignment to establish civilian authorities, protect civilians, and open safe passages for movement and transportation. The RSF militia committed to several obligations, primarily opening safe corridors to allow humanitarian aid into areas under its control and creating conditions for displaced residents to return to their homes in war-affected regions, including Al-Jazirah, which continues to suffer. However, ten months since the document’s signing, conditions have only worsened, and none of its provisions have been implemented.

Observers have considered the Addis Ababa Declaration a significant political and moral burden on the CDCF Coordination Committee, threatening its unity, as it neither advanced peace efforts nor ensured the militia’s fulfillment of its promises to protect civilians, allow humanitarian aid, or even create conditions for citizens’ return as stipulated in the document. Instead, abuses have intensified, and forced displacement of civilians has escalated.

This raises an important question: if the CDCF Coordination Committee, led by Abdullah Hamdok, possesses its own decision-making power and is not subject to the influence of dominant international or regional actors in the war, why doesn’t it reconsider the effectiveness of its partnership with the RSF militia after it has failed to adhere to the agreement? And why does it now, in its statement, emphasize the RSF’s commitment to the Jeddah Agreement on civilian protection, which is indeed important and recognized by experts as a key to ending the conflict, although the RSF initially refused to abide by it? Conversely, in previous times, CDCF had shown reluctance to implement the agreement, even expressing reservations due to its lack of a political process. This hesitation remained even after the Cairo Conference for Political Parties and the African Union adopted the framework of a Sudanese-Sudanese dialogue process within Sudan.

Therefore, it would have been more appropriate for CDCF to reconsider an agreement it is already a party to, rather than continue to hold reservations about an agreement it fears, as it calls for dismantling the militia through demobilization and reintegration according to the standards of the Sudanese army without mentioning a political process. This leads us to suggest that CDCF’s reference to the Jeddah Agreement in its statement may indicate new understandings with regional or international actors working to establish peace and restore security in the country, aligning its stance with other Sudanese political parties.

There has been widespread talk of ongoing meetings in Cairo these days among Sudanese political parties to create a roadmap for ending the war and moving forward. These efforts are perhaps reinforced by a wave of consistent statements condemning the RSF issued recently by several Sudanese political parties and armed resistance movements, denouncing the events in Al-Jazirah State. These groups include the Sudanese Communist Party, the Broad Islamic Movement, the Umma Party led by Mubarak Al-Fadil, the National Umma Party, the Democratic Unionist Party, and various armed resistance movements, all of which have condemned the RSF militia’s violations and the massacres it has committed in Al-Jazirah State.

Consequently, one could argue that the unified condemnation by political parties, witnessed for the first time against RSF violations, represents a significant shift in the political stance of these parties and could contribute to bolstering national dialogue, bringing peace and stability to the country.

Thus, we are facing new developments that may bring about a strategic alignment among those united in their condemnation of the RSF. This alignment could signal a new chapter in the political arena in the coming days, considering the rapid pace at which the army is advancing in liberating cities and reclaiming control. The face of truth lies in the importance of national alignment to transcend the crisis of war away from zero-sum conflicts among parties. We also hope for decisive victories by the army that will achieve just peace for Sudanese citizens and restore security and stability.

Best regards,
Saturday, October 26, 2024
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