Cessation of Military Operations… More than One Question Mark?

Report: Al-Tayib Abbas

More than a week has passed since the cessation of military operations on the various fighting fronts in Sudan, in a way that appears as if there is an undeclared armistice, and the armed forces were satisfied with a defensive role in the areas of Al-Mogran and Al-Halfaya in Khartoum, and Al-Fashir north Darfur, besides some countenances of warplanes. At a time that the rebel militia is witnessing a wide expansion in the eastern Al-Gezira and has revived its presence in the villages of West Al-Dindir, which coincided with horrific violations against civilians in the eastern, western and northern Al-Gezira.

While the western axis of Gezira has stopped in Al-Shaygab area “18” kilometers west of Wad Madani, the eastern axis is still moving in the villages of Al-Faw, while the army has been based in the Al-Rawa base in Al-Butana plain for about a month. The same case is in Sennar State, where the army is still besieging Singa from three directions.
This stalemate has begun to disturb the supporters of the armed forces (SAF) who aspire to see their national army crush the militia on all fronts, but observers find a justification for this standstill and assert that the Sudanese army holds all the threads, and knows when to move, why and when to stop.

Political Developments

Observers do not rule out that the recent political developments and the subsequent visit of the US envoy to Portsudan have a relationship with the calm on the battlefields.

However, Dr. Al-Fatih Mahjoub, a professor of political science at Sudanese universities, rules out this part.
Mahjoub told (Sudanese Echoes) that the more than –hour closed-door meeting, between President of the Transitional Sovereignty Council (TSC), Abdel-Fattah Al-Burhan, and Saudi Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman, is what laid the foundations for what is happening now, including the visit of the US envoy Tom Perriello, indicating that the meeting that took place between Al-Burhan and the Troika countries is looking for a loophole for a political agreement to end the war, but this matter has no relation or impact on the fighting fronts, neither near nor far, stressing that there is no announced or unannounced political agreement regarding calming the military situation.

Why the Halt then?

Mahjoub attributes the cessation of military operations to the nature of armies themselves, which do not wage continuous wars at the same pace, pointing out that all armies in the world, in a state of war, need a period of cessation to reposition and rest, pointing out that the combing operations carried out by the army in Khartoum and some areas of Al-Gezira have not stopped, and the same applies to warplanes. Mahjoub explained that armies do not always deal with the enemy by ground attack. There are intelligence battles related to gathering information and determining the enemy’s locations, repositioning and the type of its weapons, which is important and must precede any ground operation. There are battles with aircraft, drones and artillery, as there are reconnaissance and combing operations and all forms of combat, and these have not stopped.

Although Mahjoub does not rule out reaching a political agreement to end the war in Sudan through recent moves, including but not least the visit of the American envoy to Port Sudan. This matter, despite the expectation of its success, has absolutely nothing to do with the operational situation and the attacks and stoppages taking place there.

Precursory Stride

It is certain that, during this cessation period, the fighting fronts witnessed the handover of a number of militia members in the Singa and Al-Gezira fronts, which was leaked to the media only. However, observers believe that the number is much larger than that took place away from the eyes of the cameras. Observers believe that there is an agreement between the native administrations in Darfur who requested a truce to withdraw their sons from the fighting, but this statement, according to researcher Dr. Mohamed Osman, is refuted by the separation of the Jebel Awliya Bridge, pointing out that this agreement was made earlier and the response was weak, and it is no longer tempting for the army to repeat it again. Osman believes that the cessation of military operations is a (down payment) for an upcoming political action that may end the war through the gateway of the Jeddah Agreement. He said that it is likely a verbal commitment to the cessation of military operations was made during Al-Burhan’s recent meeting with the Saudi Crown Prince.

Countless Questions

Whatever the reasons, the cessation of military operations at a time when the army witnessed successive victories over the militia raised the ceiling of ambitions among the people, generated countless questions among broad sectors of the Sudanese people, who believed that the army was able to crush the militia in a shorter period than usual. They began to dream of the beginning of a new year in their homes, far from refugee camps and distant exiles.