Features of a Potential Political Settlement for the Sudanese Crisis
The Face of Truth
Ibrahim Shglawi
Political developments in Sudan are unfolding rapidly, with public events intertwining with behind-the-scenes dynamics. It seems that new contours of a vision are emerging to end the war and restore security and peace for the Sudanese people. In this article, we review several indicators that might help outline the features of a potential political settlement for the Sudanese crisis.
Political and Field Indicators
One prominent indicator is the partial halt in military operations across various fronts, except for areas representing strategic influence. This comes in light of significant victories achieved by the Sudanese Armed Forces recently in key regions such as Khartoum, Sennar, and Darfur. This military de-escalation leads us to consider other significant developments, including:
1. President Al-Burhan’s Participation in International Summits:
President Al-Burhan participated in two consecutive summits: the Arab-Islamic Summit in Riyadh and the Climate Summit in Azerbaijan. He utilized these platforms to present Sudan’s case to the world, particularly the violations committed by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which have garnered widespread condemnation from various countries and regional organizations, as well as the European Union.
2. A Bilateral Meeting with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman:
The meeting between Al-Burhan and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman marked an important milestone, particularly after a year since the war began. Sudan’s Foreign Minister announced after the meeting that there is consensus between the two leaders on a significant role for Saudi Arabia in the upcoming phase. This signals a renewed Saudi push to support a political approach to resolving the crisis.
3. International Positions:
The United States has shown positive steps towards Sudan, particularly by supporting the reopening of the “Adré” border crossing with Chad to facilitate humanitarian aid, despite Sudan’s reservations about its misuse by the RSF for receiving military supplies.
4. Efforts by the UN Special Envoy:
The UN Special Envoy to Sudan, Lamamra, held meetings with regional leaders, including Egypt’s Foreign Minister, Sameh Shoukry, and the Secretary-General of the Arab League, Ahmed Aboul Gheit. These discussions reflect a growing regional and international consensus to de-escalate the situation and explore political solutions.
Conclusion and Analysis:
These positive indicators suggest that the outlines of a political settlement for the Sudanese crisis are beginning to take shape, supported by Egypt and Saudi Arabia, alongside international and regional partners. This raises an essential question: will the Jeddah track, which focuses on security and humanitarian issues, merge with the Cairo-African Union track, which emphasizes political dialogue and Sudanese-Sudanese negotiations? Or will these tracks run concurrently to ensure the necessary synergies that strengthen national dialogue among political forces and help shape Sudan’s post-war future?
In Summary:
The extensive diplomatic activity by Sudanese missions abroad, coupled with increasing regional and international support, bolsters hope for a comprehensive political solution. This solution would end the war, restore stability to Sudan, and open new horizons for development and a brighter future for its people.
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