Three Possible Scenarios for Ending Sudan’s War

The Face of Truth

  Ibrahim Shglawi

 

 

Sudan’s war, which broke out in mid-April last year following a military coup led by the Rapid Support Forces with regional backing and local support from some political groups, has reached a critical juncture. The conflict now appears to be nearing an end, and we attempt to analyze potential outcomes in this article. After significant time has passed since its outbreak—marked by numerous casualties and extensive suffering among Sudanese citizens—the Sudanese army continues its efforts to restore security and achieve peace. As it stands, three potential scenarios for the war’s conclusion are evident.

 

 

*The First Scenario*: This involves the army continuing military operations to restore full control, security, and peace. Although there is substantial public support for this option, it could take considerable time and further deteriorate the humanitarian situation in Sudan. The high cost of this scenario requires patience, economic resources, and sacrifices, given the ongoing challenges facing citizens, including public services, living standards, health, education, and the severe economic and social conditions stemming from displacement and refugee movements in several countries.

 

 

• The Second Scenario :*A sudden collapse of the militia due to growing frustration, immense military pressure, loss of field commanders, stretched supply lines, and the central command’s weakened control. The militia also lacks a clear goal for continuing military operations, as its announced objectives from April 15 have become untenable. These initial aims—including control of army command, neutralizing its leader, restoring democracy, eliminating old regime forces, and dismantling the post-1956 state—were all thwarted by the army’s resilience and strategic tactics, along with evidence of the militia’s brutal violations against Sudanese citizens.

 

 

The Third Scenario: International pressure on the militia to end the war, particularly after its involvement in actions deemed war crimes and crimes against humanity in regions like Gezira and Darfur, sparking widespread condemnation. This scenario has gained clarity recently, with increasing international denunciations and Sudanese diplomatic efforts exposing the militia’s atrocities. A coalition of allies—ranging from Arab states, regional and international organizations, the U.S., and the EU—has come together in these condemnations.

 

 

This growing international pressure could make this scenario the most achievable, especially with the existence of the Jeddah Agreement for Security and Humanitarian Arrangements, signed on May 11 of last year, which the militia has delayed implementing. International actors now have a broader scope to pressure the militia and its supporters, with increasing sentiment toward potentially labeling it a terrorist organization. Its targeting of defenseless civilians has been documented in numerous regions, verified by rights organizations and UN agencies.

 

 

According to this scenario, eradicating the militia has become not just a legal and political issue but a moral one as well, especially after the embarrassment it caused international and regional actors who once sought to keep it in the political scene. This shift is now recognized by all, even if the militia leadership and its political backers within the “Taqaddum” coalition persist in providing it with political and media cover.

 

 

The coalition’s continued support for the militia, despite public backlash, has sparked widespread protests from Sudanese expatriates in London. Observers believe Taqaddum’s insistence on this agreement may spell the end of its political presence, especially given the public protests that disrupted their recent meeting in London, where the voices of Sudanese victims affected by militia violations were amplified.

 

 

Regardless of the likely scenario, the ultimate goal remains the pursuit of peace and a brighter future for Sudan. Through “The Truth Perspective,” we call upon all active parties to unite and agree on a solution that restores stability and peace for Sudanese citizens, prioritizing the nation’s well-being over political differences. We also urge the international community and regional and global organizations to support efforts for security and stability in Sudan by taking decisive actions against the aggressor militia.

 

May peace and wellness be upon you.
Saturday, November 2, 2024